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March 2025 Pull Back

Richard Cull

Posted on 03/12/2025

by Richard Cull

March 2025 Pull Back

Normally we post a summary / overview of the financial markets after closing the books on each calendar month, but the first two weeks of March have not been normal.

Yesterday the S&P 500 entered correction territory for a few minutes in the afternoon, meaning it was down over 10% from its high. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index improved late in the trading day but still closed down 9.3% from its Feb.19th record.

As we wrote in our February blog, the markets have been a roller coaster since the November election - a brilliant November was followed by a disappointing December, then a strong January was almost entirely undone by a weak February, and now another leg down.

Some choppiness is to be expected as an incoming administration rolls out its policies, but this stretch seems extreme as expressed by Keith Lerner, co-CIO and chief market strategist at Truist:

“With the feverish pace of activity in Washington, the current cycle has been amplified. Moreover, the current elevated level of policy uncertainty came at a time of elevated investor expectations.”

The “expectations” he is referring to is the belief by the markets that Trump 2.0 would be very business friendly. That has given way to the “uncertainty” of tariff rhetoric, tariff implementation, tariff recission…basically tariff whiplash.

Without getting into the detailed justifications/ramifications of tariffs in general, we believe these are being used as a negotiating tactic by the administration. Even if this is the true intention, the very vocal, public nature of the discourse is leading to serious concern among investors as it creates “uncertainty” for companies that could affect purchasing of inventory, building of capacity, hiring/firing of workers, and ability to transact abroad.

And this is why you are seeing red numbers on the screen and hearing dire reports on the nightly news.

During times like these, we keep our emotions in check, call on our experience and focus on our fundamentals. A short checklist is also very helpful:

  • Markets experience 1 correction of 10% PER YEAR on average
  • We are LONG-TERM INVESTORS, not short-term traders.
  • We invest in high-quality companies (stocks) that have a proven track record of navigating all sorts of economic environments under all types of administrations.

While market swings can be unnerving, it’s essential to maintain perspective. Volatility is a normal part of investing, and while uncertainty may dominate the headlines, history has shown that disciplined, long-term investors are rewarded for their patience. We will continue to monitor developments closely, keeping our focus on sound investment principles and quality assets that can weather short-term disruptions. As always, if you have any concerns or questions, don’t hesitate to reach out—we’re here to guide you through the noise and keep you on track toward your financial goals.

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